Clyde Burnett, Paris.   The Paris conference was inspired by an increasing recognition of the environmental danger caused by the planet’s climate changes, and humanity’s need to respond. It was generally agreed by 195 countries that it is extremely important to limit the global warming by somewhat less than 2oC by controlling greenhouse gas emissions and achieving emissions neutrality by mid-century. The agreement calls for a common set of monitoring, verification, and reporting procedures. Commitments to reduce emissions and to provide financial support for poorer countries will continue to be voluntary.

The European Union proposed the 2oC limit in 1996. Our procrastination, supported by the fossil fuel industries, has added another 12.5% of CO2 concentration to the atmosphere and warmed the planet another 0.5oC since that time. Now the present emissions commitments are only likely to limit the temperature increase to 3oC; the additional commitments will be necessary and more difficult.

Reactions: James Hansen of Columbia University observed that the agreement called for no action, just promises. Christine La Garde of the International Monetary Fund called it a critical step forward, adding that the key message is to price carbon right and do it now. Bill McKibben of 350.org said it is just what should have been done 20 years ago.

I believe it is appropriate at this time for me to improve on the poor and inadequate television coverage of this extremely dangerous environmental problem. It is the increased atmospheric trapping of the outgoing infrared heat radiation from the Earth that is producing the dangerous imbalance of energy.

A simple arithmetic calculation, neglecting the atmosphere, of the Earth’s energy balance gives the result that would require a surface temperature of slightly below zero degrees Fahrenheit. That would be almost 60 degrees below our observed surface temperature of 59 degrees Fahrenheit! It is that powerful atmospheric trapping of the outward infrared (heat) radiation (the greenhouse effect) that has been critical for the pleasant climate to which we have evolved.

Scientists have known the amount of heat radiation involved and the spectral profile dependence on temperature for over 100 years. There are just a few trace gases like carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapor ( H2O), and methane ( CH4)  that absorb infrared at just the peak intensity of the Earth’s outgoing heat radiation, which produce the trapping and yield the energy balance to which we and our plants and animals have evolved. The environmental danger is that humans are increasing the atmospheric CO2 by burning fossil fuels, which in turn controls more heat trapping by very large amounts of H2O. The recognition of this danger by the Paris conference and various national commitments to control greenhouse gas emissions should slow the present rate of disastrous climate changes produced by this energy imbalance.

However, we will continue to be faced with costly adaptation to a changed climate. Our atmosphere has been polluted. The atmospheric lifetime of water vapor, controlled by evaporation and precipitation, is about 10 days. The lifetime of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the order of centuries, controlled by fossil fuel burning and the cycle of photosynthesis, with longer cycles controlled by the oceans and continents. Atmospheric methane has a lifetime of 10-12 years controlled by atmospheric chemistry.

It follows, that even with an approach to emission neutrality or a complete stop in humanity’s trace gas emissions, the greenhouse trapping of heat by the more than 40% recent increase of CO2 from burning fossil fuels will continue the heat trapping for our lifetime and for that of our children and most of our grandchildren. The glaciers and ice caps will melt, global temperatures will increase, sea levels will rise. There will be weather extremes due to increased evaporation-precipitation and circulation changes. The adaptation to these climate changes will be increasingly costly.

It is the propaganda of the fossil fuel industries, the government policy of business as usual, and the ignorance and apathy of the public that has produced this disastrous situation in our country. If we continue business as usual for the foreseeable future, we will have relinquished any hope of climate control for our lifetime as well as that of our children and grandchildren -- and for the future of humanity on this planet. It is critical that the electorate in our democratic process accepts the responsibility to understand this danger and make an intelligent choice of leadership in implementing the goals of the Paris conference.