Dear Editor,

I did some homework and have decided to vote for Susan Berumen for County Commissioner because she is clearly the most informed and qualified.

Both candidates support economic growth. Ms. Berumen favors diversification of businesses that complement the county’s primary industry with a preference toward growth in locations where necessary infrastructure exists to support new businesses. Mr. Marr did not offer a vision of “who, what, where, when or how.” As professionals, Ms. Berumen has over two decades of accounting and government finance experience. Mr. Marr is a successful local businessman.

When discussions turned to the Gilpin County budget, Mr. Marr made a statement that shocked me. I paraphrase: “In the past ten years, Gilpin County has added about 500 residents but the county budget has doubled; it’s too progressive.”

I majored in economics and then spent more than ten years of my thirty-year career as an advisor to state and local government finance officials. I decided to evaluate Mr. Marr’s claim about the difference between population and budget growth. If true, this would be a persuasive talking point. Spoiler alert: not true.

His estimate of population growth is consistent with U.S. Census data. County population grew by 367 residents from 5,441 in 2010 to 5,808 in 2020; the census also estimates 5,873 residents for 2021. Using the 2021 estimate translates to a change of 432 residents; 8% population growth.

However, I absolutely dispute his county budget growth claim. County records show expenditures increased 40% over ten years; $20.5 million (actual) in 2012 to $28.7 million in 2022 (budgeted). A 40% increase is nowhere near the 100% increase he told me.

My analysis becomes technically complicated from here, so bear with me to the end.

When comparing the value of money spent ten years ago with money spent today, ANY responsible analyst MUST account for inflation. To compare raw numbers is misleading.

Why? For nine of the past ten years, inflation (measured by the Consumer Price Index) averaged 2.6% per year. This level was within the Federal Reserve Board’s risk tolerance and we barely noticed. However, compounding 2.6% price growth over ten years amounts to an increase of 29%. This means that goods and services that cost $100 in 2012 cost $129 today. Translating this to the budget means that in real economic terms, the 2012 budget ($20.5 million) is equivalent to $26.4 million today.

Mr. Marr might say “OK, I flubbed the difference between 40% and 100%, but the budget still increased by more than inflation.” Yes, but we agreed earlier that county population grew by 8%. When we increase the inflation adjusted budget of 2012 ($26.4 million) by 8% (population growth) we get $28.5 million; extremely close to the 2022 budget ($28.7 million).

Ms. Berumen understands all of this.

I would have liked to hear both candidates discuss this at the public candidate forum. However, he declined to appear.

Phil Gibbs

Gilpin County