Clyde Burnett, Peak to Peak. We have recently had California wildfires, hurricane Michael in Florida, and various heavy rains and floods. Our winter weather has shown fast moving storms and outbreaks of cold air masses. Siberia has become colder than normal and these very cold outbreaks penetrate southward into the U.S. and move rapidly to the southeast.

A recent poll indicates that 70 percent of people now believe we have climate change, up from about 50 percent. The change is believed to be due to these increases in extreme weather. But this is only a small part of the Earth’s response to our global warming by increased heat trapping. The broad view of climate change includes the acceleration of Greenland and Antarctic ice melt, rising seas that force the migration of Pacific Islanders, and warming oceans that destroy sea life. There are also heat-related deaths. Australian summer temperatures have hit 120 F with deaths of huge numbers of wild horses, camels and even fish.

Question: What does this mean for our upcoming summer? Are these just isolated incidents or something we have caused?

Answer: Our normal benevolent climate had an atmosphere greenhouse effect from water vapor, controlled by trace constituents of carbon dioxide, methane and a few others. Now our climate has changed due to the CO2 increase from the 400 ppm observed during the time of my first column to the present concentration of 410 ppm. There has been a 3-4 percent increase just in the last few years. This is a fast approach to the 450 ppm and the 2C that is the end goal of the Paris Accord.

We need to appreciate the series of scientific effects. For example, an increase of a few parts per million of CO2 is capable of slightly warming the oceans on 70 percent of the Earth’s surface. This causes more water evaporation and there is then a water feedback. The water vapor traps more heat, more evaporation, more heat trapping, etc. Fortunately, Earth has continuing evaporation and precipitation for a 10-day water cycle. Venus did not have that, so there was a runaway greenhouse effect. I wonder, are we now changing that cycle?

Question: How can we move toward the Paris goal?

Answer: Our federal government leaves us on the path to continue increasing CO2 and there is little hope that that will change in the near future. That decision is based on economic profits for a few while the disasters are costly for the very poor and the rest of us. We must make the transition from power produced by fossil fuels to power from solar, wind, nuclear and other renewables. We must continue with state, city and private changes. Michael Mann hopes we can proceed to a new administration and senate for the next election; otherwise we are in big trouble.

Question: Can’t we adapt?

Answer: We must adapt to our present disasters, but they are becoming more expensive. We must anticipate the fires, floods, sea level rise and take defensive measures. My science doesn’t help much with this. I have always hoped my column would become a dialog with readers. Now it is more necessary. Let me hear from you!

(Originally published in the February 7, 2019, print edition of The Mountain-Ear.)