Scott Ptach, Boulder County. There are a few factors that are aiding the Boulder County real estate market. These include net migration, low inventory, low building and a continued change in affluence in our local economy. There are a lot of things to talk about regarding all of these factors, but I want to bring up one of the biggest ones, and that is net migration.
Our current population growth in Colorado has risen by about a million people each of the past ten years. From 3,290,000 in 1990 to 4,300,000 in 2000 to 5,050,000 in 2010 and now we are projected just shy of another million at 5,750,000 by 2020. About 80 percent of these people have moved to the “golden rectangle.” This being Fort Collins to Colorado Springs (north to south) and Boulder to DIA (west to east). Now due to lack of buildable ground, people are moving further east.
The blue counties on the map pictured reflect net loss in population change. The light tan counties are basically maintaining with minimal increase. The darker tan and darkest tan counties are the counties with the most gross population growth since 2010. This map has shifted to the east since last year and, as you can see, the most population growth is actually in the eastern front range counties. With this much net population growth in the Front Range, it is no wonder we have the demand for housing that we do.
As you can see in the graph, births are maintaining a steady line since 2000, if not even starting to drop just slightly. Deaths are increasing as our baby boomer population grows older. The biggest change in the population though is net migration, which is up since 2000. It has been ever-increasing as Denver and the Front Range continue to grow as an economic hot bed.
As a final thought, I should say this net migration not only includes people moving here from outside of Colorado, but the map with the counties does include migration from more rural counties into more urban areas. So, the net migration per county could be going down due to folks moving toward the city for better paying jobs or any number of other factors.
As we continue to see expansion of our population, it will be interesting to see what happens out east. With the net migration in those counties being the highest in the state, we will see what happens to the I-25 corridor as everything starts to be built up. Services, businesses, groceries, etc. are going to be needed for all of those people.
Regardless of what happens east in the plains, how do you think this will affect our mountain communities?
Scott Ptach is a member of The Boulder Property Network and can be reached at 303-441-5611.
