Dear Editor,

It seems a lifetime ago, but the argument for shutting down the economy was that we did not want to overwhelm the healthcare system with COVID patients. We used the “worst-case” models, which turned out to be either wrong or very wrong (depending on the model). Here in Colorado, we built an “Alternative Care Facility” (a hospital) in the Denver Convention Center. We spent $70 million to build it. We are spending $60,000 per day to lease the space ($30.7 million to lease it until mid-January 2021). That is just one example of the costs of the COVID Lockdown. We have shut down the entire US economy, with well over 40 million people having filed for unemployment benefits in the US. This has devastated the Gilpin County budget (and it is hurting most governmental budgets). Gilpin County has laid off deputies, and plow drivers and shut down the Rec Center. The costs have been huge.

The question is: “Should we continue?” 

First, we need some perspective. According to the Colorado Health Information Dataset (Dept. of Public Health and Environment), 39,313 people died from all causes in Colorado in 2019 (the year before COVID). That averages out to 107.7 people dying per day in Colorado. 

Here is a chart of COVID deaths per day in Colorado. This uses the overstated number sent to CDC (deaths WITH COVID, not deaths DUE TO COVID) since it has a longer history. Because deaths are reported to the state in bursts (an agency might send in a week’s worth at once), I smoothed the data with a 7-day Moving Average.

We dropped under 5 COVID deaths per day on June 25th, and continue under that level. On July 7th (last date shown on the chart) the 7-day MA was down to 0.9 deaths with COVID per day (fewer than one death per day). Remember, before COVID, 107.7 Coloradans died from all other causes per day.

That means that, on average, on any given day, the average Coloradan has a 1 in 51,798 chance of dying from anything. The chance of dying from COVID is 1 in 6,508,833. You are over a hundred times more likely to die of something else than of COVID (on average in Colorado).

It is becoming obvious that we overreacted, badly.

Back to the question: “Should we continue?” It seems pretty hard to justify given these numbers.

John Carder
Peak to Peak