How to capture the zeitgeist of 2021? Perhaps the immortal Charles Dickens said it best in A Tale of Two Cities: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…”

Are things getting better or worse? Is human civilization a story of steady progress or a perpetual, cyclical tragedy?

As we survey news feeds and social media memes, each of us subconsciously forms an answer to these questions. And every day we carry those conclusions with us as we encounter new information. Everything we experience is filtered through these pervasive confirmation biases.

In the context of this age, 2021 particularly, it is clear that pessimism dominates public discourse. Negativity is addictive, and media algorithms are the pushers du jour.

There are people who believe that life was better in the past, arguing that some bygone era provided more simplicity, tranquility, or spirituality. These rose-tinted fits of nostalgia are generally confined to the wealthy. And the lifestyles they purport to envy also tend to be the elites of their age, not the common people living average lives.

As always, the only solvent effective against biases is factual data.

By the middle of the 21st century, humanity will have expanded to nearly 10 billion people. A small portion of those people will live in misery and want equivalent to the Stone Age, but the vast majority will be better fed, better sheltered, and much better protected against disease than any of their ancestors. They will live longer than their forbears and acquire unprecedented wealth in the process.

In his book, The Rational Optimist, science writer Matt Ridley offers compelling evidence to suggest that life is indeed getting better, and at an accelerating rate.

For example, since 1800 the population of the world has multiplied 6X, yet average life expectancy has more than doubled and real income has been multiplied 9X.

Relative to 1955, a “golden age” to many Americans, 2005 may not have seemed that great. And yet the average human on Earth in 2005 earned nearly three times as much money (inflation adjusted), ate one third more calories, buried one third as many of their children and could expect to live 30% longer themselves.

The average human in 2005 was less likely to die as the result of war, murder, childbirth, accidents, tornadoes, flooding, famine, whooping cough, TB, malaria, typhoid, measles and a host of other diseases.

Although world population more than doubled from 1955-2005, our average latter day human was also much more likely to be literate, have access to electricity and water, to own a telephone, flush toilet and even a refrigerator. It’s worth noting that even Cornelius Vanderbilt, the wealthiest American until his death in 1877, owned none of these conveniences.

In 2010, among the American’s officially designated as poor by the US government, 99% had electricity, running water, flush toilets and a refrigerator; 95% had a TV, 88% had a phone, 71% owned a car and 70% had air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of those things.

For some, the data evidencing progress still may not seem a satisfying answer. The most inspiring alternative I can recall comes from Steven Pinker, author and professor of cognitive science.

In his seminal book Enlightenment Now, Pinker recounts a lecture where a student in the audience asked, with complete sincerity, “Why should I live?” Mr. Pinker’s reply, edited for brevity, went something like this:

“As a sentient being, you have the potential to flourish. You can refine your faculty of reason itself by learning and debating. You can seek explanations of the natural world through science, and insight into the human condition through the arts and humanities. As the heir to billions of years of life perpetuating itself, you can perpetuate life in return.

“You have also been endowed with a sense of sympathy - the ability to love, respect, help, and show kindness - and you can enjoy the gift of mutual benevolence with friends, family and colleagues.

“And because reason tells you that none of these gifts are particular to you, you have the responsibility to provide to others what you expect for yourself. You can foster the welfare of other sentient beings by enhancing life, health, knowledge, freedom, abundance, safety, beauty and peace. History shows that when we sympathize with others and apply our ingenuity to improving the human condition, we can make progress in doing so, and you can help continue that progress.”

I can’t recall a better sentiment for helping us contextualize a difficult year, celebrate our respective holiday traditions, and ring in a new one. Cheers!