Clyde Burnett, Peak to Peak.    We need to realize that human populations now at 7 billion make us part of Nature. We now participate in the atmospheric greenhouse effect and its enhancement by the 40% increase of the CO2 trace gas. Normally that infrared trapping makes our average surface temperature about 60 F degrees rather than the 0 F degrees that would be produced with no atmosphere.

The story began in 1896 when Arrhenius calculated that doubling CO2 would increase the temperature about 3-4 C degrees. That small amount of CO2 produces a slight additional heat trapping over the oceans that in turn increases a huge amount of water vapor heat trapping. (Professor Alley calls CO2 the control knob on the thermostat for thermal heating by water vapor).

Then Professor Roger Revelle noted that we are performing a geophysical experiment by increased emission of CO2 from burning fossil fuels. Dr. James Hansen told Congress in 1988 that the temperature increase of global warming is under way. There is a natural response from planet Earth and finally a human response.

Global warming is followed by the Earth’s response of melting ice in continental and polar glaciers and in the Arctic Sea. The oceans on 70 percent of the Earth’s surface absorb over 90 percent of the trapped Earth heat. The water warms and its expansion, along with the meltwater, produces sea level rise. The warmer atmosphere and ocean evaporation increases water vapor and its latent heat of evaporation. We begin to see episodes of extreme weather. Our planet’s response with polar and glacial ice melting is largely ignored due to an attitude of “not in my backyard”.

The IPCC predicted that this would yield episodes of extreme weather, but we didn’t understand precisely what that meant. Now we do! The Arctic warmed double that from heat trapping due largely to diminished solar reflection as ice melted to water. This warmer polar air mass resulted in sluggish storm movements in the U.S. In 2017 there were the Northern California wildfires. Hurricane Harvey’s sluggish onshore movement in 2017 produced an immense amount of rain and flooding. Then Hurricane Maria made a cat 5 landfall in Puerto Rico. In 2018 the Category 4 Hurricane Florence, with sluggish landfall, flooded east coast Carolinas.

Finally, Hurricane Michael, with a near cat 5 landfall, produced a Florida disaster with onshore tornado-like wind and surge damage for miles and miles. (See NOAA Oct 10 morning photo of Michael’s approach for landfall.)
The storms have finally broken the television policy, “Never say Climate Change.” CBS and the Weather Channel finally said those words and wonder, “Is this the sign of things to come?”

But Florida Senator Rubio insists “We will not sacrifice economic growth for climate change.” That seems to be Washington policy. So “Them that has, gets!” And we see that becomes our human response.

It is our sluggish behavior in government control of the CO2 greenhouse gas emission that jeopardizes the arbitrary international global warming goals of 2 degrees C, much less 1.5 degrees C. But the acceleration of extreme weather is becoming convincing and we worry that the increased polar emission of methane and carbon dioxide will threaten to become a tipping point.

I believe that the various gaps in our understanding of environmental science have delayed our appreciation of the need to correct our behavior. It is our carbon dioxide pollution from fossil fuel burning that is the control of the increased water vapor heat trapping. It is our failure to appreciate the danger of too much of a good thing—the Greenhouse Effect— that can destroy our civilization.

(Originally published in the November 1, 2018, print edition of The Mountain-Ear.)