Elisabeth Grove, Peak to Peak. Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment (CDPHE) and Colorado School of Public Health released an updated statewide modeling report.

The report shows that the effective reproduction number for SARS-CoV-2 statewide is just above one, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 infections are increasing in Colorado. Currently 1 in 196 Coloradans are estimated to be infected. 

As more Coloradans are vaccinated, mobility is reaching its highest level since the start of the pandemic in 2020. Modeling results suggest that transmission control should be maintained at the same level for the next month in order to prevent a spike in hospitalizations and deaths from Covid-19. By then, Coloradans might be able to relax some of the behaviors that have been so critical in controlling the state’s epidemic. 

The state is continuing it’s push for individual’s behaviors that result in high levels of transmission control through key policies such as statewide mask mandate and statewide limits on some indoor settings in addition to launching a paid multimedia communications campaign in multiple languages to deliver critical public health messages during this pivotal time in the pandemic. Starting this week, the state will have public service announcements to remind Coloradans to follow public health protocols like masking, distancing, and staying home when you are sick, especially if they aren’t yet vaccinated. The public service announcements will be published on television, streaming services, social media, and digital channels. The state is also continuing to meet with local public health agencies to prepare for a transitional period where local ordinances will play an even more critical role. 

The latest modeling provides projections based on Covid-19 hospital census data through April 5 and vaccination date through April 4, 2021. The models are based on Colorado data and incorporate assumptions reflecting the current state of the science.

The Colorado School of Public Health (ColoradoSPH) assembled the expert group that works with the state on modeling projections. The group includes modeling scientists at the ColoradoSPH and the University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Denver, and Colorado State University. 

All previous modeling reports are available on the Colorado School of Public Health’s Covid-19 website. 

The state will continue to review data and model findings as the pandemic continues to inform policy decisions. Continue to stay up to date by visiting covid19.colorado.gov.

(Originally published in the April 15, 2021, edition of The Mountain-Ear.)